CONCLUSION
Expected future trends of super typhoon
We know what causes large-scale cyclones like hurricanes and typhoons: Heat. Specifically, warm water, which provides energy to the storm. The water warms the air above it, which responds by rising. Surrounding cooler air is drawn in, is warmed by the ater, rises, and the cycle continues. As it grows, the rotation of the Earth sets the huge air mass spinning, and you get a typhoon. It continues to strengthen as long as more energy is available.
Perhaps you see where this is going. The more warm water there is, the more energy the typhoon can get. This is why we see them in the summer, not winter; the water must be warm. And if the water is warmer than usual, or there’s more of it, the system can grow until it becomes a monster.
Global warming going
We know the oceans are warming. A huge amount of energy is being stuffed into them, because we know that excess carbon dioxide in the air is reventing the Earth from being able to radiate away some of the energy that comes down in the form of sunlight. The process is as simple as it is terrible and damning: More CO2 means more energy which means more heat stored in the oceans.
And that means either more strong hurricanes and typhoons, or stronger ones overall.
There are many, many factors that can affect the size and strength of a storm. The exact path, the upper level winds, the moisture content of the air: These all contribute to the strength of a cyclone.
Can we say then that global warming contributed to the typhoon’s strength? Even that can be a little murky. It’s very difficult to disentangle the various factors that cause a typhoon to form and grow.
IPCC report has “low confidence” that global warming contributes significantly to current cyclone activity. It’s not that global warming doesn’t contribute, it’s just that we don’t know.
Perhaps you see where this is going. The more warm water there is, the more energy the typhoon can get. This is why we see them in the summer, not winter; the water must be warm. And if the water is warmer than usual, or there’s more of it, the system can grow until it becomes a monster.
Global warming going
We know the oceans are warming. A huge amount of energy is being stuffed into them, because we know that excess carbon dioxide in the air is reventing the Earth from being able to radiate away some of the energy that comes down in the form of sunlight. The process is as simple as it is terrible and damning: More CO2 means more energy which means more heat stored in the oceans.
And that means either more strong hurricanes and typhoons, or stronger ones overall.
There are many, many factors that can affect the size and strength of a storm. The exact path, the upper level winds, the moisture content of the air: These all contribute to the strength of a cyclone.
Can we say then that global warming contributed to the typhoon’s strength? Even that can be a little murky. It’s very difficult to disentangle the various factors that cause a typhoon to form and grow.
IPCC report has “low confidence” that global warming contributes significantly to current cyclone activity. It’s not that global warming doesn’t contribute, it’s just that we don’t know.
The Warming Future
While it may be difficult to see the effects of global warming on typhoons today, that almost certainly won’t always be the case.
We know that climate change is real, and that the planet is warming. We also know the oceans are warming, and that they feed typhoons. Things may fluctuate over a single typhoon season, or even over a timescale of years. But over decades, these conditions will make themselves known.
As time goes on, and the overall heat of our planet increases, the likelihood of more and more powerful storms increases as well. At the very least, as oceans warm up, there’s a lot more fuel for them.
While it may be difficult to see the effects of global warming on typhoons today, that almost certainly won’t always be the case.
We know that climate change is real, and that the planet is warming. We also know the oceans are warming, and that they feed typhoons. Things may fluctuate over a single typhoon season, or even over a timescale of years. But over decades, these conditions will make themselves known.
As time goes on, and the overall heat of our planet increases, the likelihood of more and more powerful storms increases as well. At the very least, as oceans warm up, there’s a lot more fuel for them.